In the Bayesian (or epistemological) interpretation, probability measures a degree of belief. Bayes's theorem then links the degree of belief in a proposition before and after accounting for evidence. For example, suppose it is believed with 50% certainty that a coin is twice as likely to land heads than tails. If the coin is flipped a number of times and the outcomes observed, that degree of belief may rise, fall or remain the same depending on the results.
For proposition A and evidence B,
P(A), the prior, is the initial degree of belief in A.
P(A|B), the posterior, is the degree of belief having accounted for B.
the quotient P(B|A)/P(B) represents the support B provides for A.
In a diagram form, the theorem looks like this:
It is in human nature to try to predict the future or future outcomes. There is a great reward in knowing what is going to happen. One could bet on the outcome (such as a horse race or stock price) to become quite wealthy. Or one could weigh the values to determine a course of action to avoid a hazardous risk.
The latter is the basis of insurance, the calculation of certain past events and conditions is used to create the value of an insurance pool to pay claims.
There is also the ego intelligence that tries to force future outcomes by manipulating the present values. In the stock world, it is insider trading to floating rumors to affect stock prices.
When we apply probability theorem to LOST, we cannot diagram a clear valuation to the end.
Initially, we have the following starting point:
Plane crash - - - probable outcomes: death, injury, survival.
If death, then the future factors (plot points) would be purgatory (limbo), hell (punishment), heaven (paradise/reward).
If injury, then future factors would be pain, human interaction (care), cure or death.
If survival, then future factors would be food (starvation), shelter (danger), rescue (home).
To attempt to diagram the plot probabilities of LOST, one has to start with the crash as the key starting point:
If survives the plane crash, the possibilities are living in danger on the island or going home.
If one does not survive the plane crash, the possibilities are heaven, redemption or nothingness.
Nothingness is the black void of ceasing to exist at any level. It is the worst fate for a human spirit.
So which theorem path did the LOST story take?
